Review of Maritime Transport free essay sample

Any factual or editorial corrections that may prove * ** reference to a United Nations document. * ** The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. * ** following address: Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. UNCTAD/RMT/2012 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales no. E. 12. II. D. 17 ISBN 978-92-1-112860-4 e-ISBN 978-92-1-055950-8 ISSN 0566-7682 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Review of Maritime Transport 2012 was prepared by the Trade Logistics Branch of the Division on Technology and Logistics, UNCTAD, under the coordination of Jan Hoffmann with administrative support by Florence Hudry, the supervision of Jose Maria Jan Hoffmann, Azhar Jaimurzina, Anila Premti, Vincent Valentine and Frida Youssef. REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 Vessel groupings used in the Review of Maritime Transport the shipping tables in this year’s edition. The cut-off point for all tables, based on data from IHS Fairplay, Review group Oil tankers Bulk carriers General cargo ships Constituent ship types Oil tankers Ore and bulk carriers, ore/bulk/oil carriers Refrigerated cargo, specialized cargo, roll-on roll-off (ro-ro) cargo, general cargo (single- and multi-deck), general cargo/passenger Container ships Other ships Fully cellular Oil/chemical tankers, chemical tankers, other tankers, all other types Total all ships Includes all the above-mentioned vessel types Approximate vessel-size groups referred to in the Review of Maritime Transport, according to generally used shipping terminology Crude oil tankers ULCC, double hull ULCC, single hull VLCC, double hull VLCC, single hull Suezmax crude tanker Aframax crude tanker Panamax crude tanker Dry bulk and ore carriers Large capesize bulk carrier Small capesize bulk carrier Panamax bulk carrier Handymax bulk carrier Handysize bulk carrier Ore/oil carriers VLOO Container ships Post-Panamax container ship Panamax container ship Source: IHS Fairplay. 350,000 dwt plus 320,000 dwt plus 200,000–349,999 dwt 200,000–319,999 dwt 125,000–199,999 dwt 80,000–124,999 dwt; moulded breadth gt; 32. 31m 50,000–79,999 dwt; moulded breadth lt; 32. 31m 50,000 dwt plus 80,000–149,999 dwt; moulded breadth gt; 32. 31m 55,000–84,999 dwt; moulded breadth lt; 32. 31m 35,000–54,999 dwt 10,000–34,999 dwt 200,000 dwt moulded breadth gt; 32. 31m moulded breadth lt ; 32. 31m FOREWORD xiii FOREWORD Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade and a key engine driving globalization. Around 80 per cent of global trade by volume and over 70 per cent by value is carried by sea and is handled by ports worldwide; these shares are even higher in the case of most developing countries. UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport regulatory and legal frameworks. The Review also covers inland transport and intermodal connections. Keeping track of both long-term trends and the latest developments, the Review has become a standard reference work at a greater rate, by almost 10 per cent, as shipowners took delivery of vessels that had been ordered before for most shipping companies. For importers and exporters, however, the low freight rates helped to reduce transaction costs, which is important for helping to revive global trade. playing an increasingly important part in the policy debate on globalization, trade and development, environmental Review of Maritime Transport addresses a range of relevant issues in this context and includes a special chapter on sustainable freight transport. This chapter highlights the impacts of freight transport activity, for example on the environment, human If left unchecked, such unsustainable patterns are likely to intensify, increasing the potential for global energy and environmental crises, and risk undermining progress being made on sustainable development and growth. heavy reliance on oil, and limit environmental and climate change impacts. In this context, developing effective policies and measures, including for the purpose of climate change mitigation and adaptation, and ensuring are becoming increasingly aware of the need to mainstream sustainability criteria into their transport planning and policies, and it is hoped that this year’s Review of Maritime Transport will assist policymakers in their efforts to promote sustainable freight transport systems. Supachai Panitchpakdi Secretary-General of UNCTAD xiv REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY scrapping and manning. Shipowners of one third In tandem with developments in the world economy and global merchandise trade, international seaborne shipments continued to grow in 2011, albeit at a slower rate than in 2010. Fuelled by strong growth in container and dry bulk trades, world seaborne trade grew by 4 per cent in 2011, taking the total volume of In addition to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe a number of factors have weighed down on global risks, political and social unrest in North Africa and Western Asia, natural disasters in Japan and Thailand which have disrupted regional and global supply chains, rising oil prices and volatility, the impact of the austerity measures introduced in many countries and the fading of the stimulus effect of 2010, and growing geopolitical tensions. Many of these factors have remained relevant in 2012 and, depending on how they evolve, may impact dramatically on the global economic and trade outlook and international seaborne trade. operators are from developing countries. Almost cent of scrapping in 2011 took place in India, China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. for carriers Freight rates in 2011 and at the beginning of 2012 Substantial freight-rate reductions were reported cargo segments. Vessel oversupply continued to be a driving factor behind reductions in freight rates. Ship operators attempted to make savings through greater economies of scale by investing in large capacity ships in the tanker and dry bulk market segments. Daily earnings of large Capesize vessels dropped class for several months. While smaller vessels offer vessels are constrained to navigate between the world’s busiest trading centres that have seen both a downturn in business and increased oversupply in available tonnage. The cost of transport expressed as a percentage of the value of the goods imported continues to decrease for developing countries in Asia and the Americas, converging to that of developed nations. four years during 2011, reaching more than 1. 5 billion deadweight deliveries and a drastic downturn in new orders following the economic crisis has led to a reduction in the world order book by one third during the same period. Still largely responding to orders placed prior reluctant to cancel or postpone deliveries. China, Japan and the Republic of Korea together built more than 93 per cent of the tonnage delivered in 2011, thus maintaining important employment in their shipyards. The resulting oversupply of ships represents a serious challenge for shipowners. Developing countries continue to expand their market share in different maritime sectors, including shipbuilding, ownership, registration, operation, Container port throughput increased World container port throughput increased by an This increase was less than the 14. 5 per cent increase of 2010 that sharply rebounded from the slump of 2009. Chinese mainland ports, utilized by many manufacturers and a partial indicator of the global demand for semi-manufactured and manufactured goods, maintained their share of total world container port throughput at 24. 2 per cent. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv The UNCTAD Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) and its components showed a continuation in 2012 of the trend towards larger ships deployed by a smaller number of companies. Between 2011 and 2012, the number of companies providing services per country largest container ships increased by 11. 5 per cent. Only liner shipping connections; for the remaining country facilitation might be reached earlier than in other areas of the Doha Development Round of negotiations. Special focus: growing concerns regarding sustainable freight transport The importance of freight transport as a trade enabler, an engine of growth and a driver of social development is widely recognized. However, the associated adverse impacts of freight transport activity on the environment, human health and the climate are also cause for concern. Overall, transport consumes over 50 per cent of global cent per year from 2008 to 2035 and to account for fuel use. Energy demand of commercial transportation — trucks, aeroplanes, ships and trains — will rise by economic growth, particularly in developing countries. At the same time, the transport sector accounts for are related to freight transport. Nearly 25 per cent of global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are transport related and these are expected to year) between 2005 and 2030. If left unchecked, these unsustainable patterns are likely to intensify and potentially result in global energy and environmental crises, and undermine any progress being made in world sustainable development and growth. Sustainability imperatives in the freight transport sector lead to the need to reduce the sector’s energy consumption and emissions, including GHGs and air pollutants. Governments and industry have started to mainstream sustainability criteria into their planning processes, policies, and programmes; however, meeting effectively and in full the sector’s Legal issues and regulatory developments Important issues include the recent adoption of amendments to the 1996 Convention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims (1996 LLMC), as well as a range of regulatory developments relating to maritime and supply-chain security, maritime safety and environmental issues. Among the regulatory measures worth noting is a set of technical and and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping that was adopted under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in July 2011 and is expected to enter into force on 1 January 2013. To assist in the implementation of these new mandatory measures, four sets of guidelines were also adopted at IMO in March 2012. Discussions on possible market-based measures for the reduction of GHG emissions from international shipping continued and remained controversial. In respect of liability and compensation for ship-source oil pollution, a new UNCTAD report provides an overview of the international legal framework as well as some guidance for national policymaking. At the World Trade Organization (WTO), negotiations continued on a future Trade Facilitation Agreement. While negotiators advanced on the draft negotiating text, it has been suggested that an agreement in trade DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE In tandem with the world economy and global merchandise trade, international seaborne shipments continued to grow in 2011, albeit at a slower rate than in 2010. Fuelled by economies, a number of factors have weighed down on global growth. These include, Africa and Western Asia, natural disasters in Japan and Thailand which have disrupted regional and global supply chains, rising oil prices and volatility, austerity measures, the fading of the stimulus effect of 2010, and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Many of these factors remained relevant in 2012 and, depending on how they evolve, they could impact dramatically on the global economic and trade outlook. This chapter covers developments from January 2011 to June 2012, and where possible up to October 2012. Section A reviews the overall performance of the global economy and world merchandise trade. Section B considers developments in world seaborne trade volumes and examines trends unfolding in the economic sectors and activities that generate demand for shipping services, including oil and gas, mining, agriculture and steel production. Section C highlights selected trends that are currently transforming the landscape of international shipping and seaborne trade, focusing mainly on climate and the rising bunker fuel prices and operating costs. 2 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 A. WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS1 1. World economic growth2 The global economy lost steam in 2011, with gross In 2011, world GDP, industrial production, merchandise trade and seaborne shipments continued to move industrial production decelerated in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the slow recovery facing advanced economies, a number of factors have weighed down on global growth. These include, and social unrest in North Africa and Western Asia, natural disasters in Japan and Thailand which have disrupted regional and global supply chains, rising oil prices and volatility, austerity measures, the fading of the stimulus effect of 2010, and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Many of these factors remained relevant in 2012, and, depending on how they evolve, they could impact dramatically on the global economic outlook. nuclear accident that hit the country in March 2011, as well as the interruptions to the supply chains caused Tighter monetary policies in many developing regions contributed to moderate growth in industrial activity. In China for example, industrial production grew 2010. Brazil, India and the Russian Federation also expanded their industrial output, albeit at a slower rate than in 2010. Flooding in Thailand strongly cent in October and November, and drove down outputs in Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Malaysia Figure 1. 1. The OECD Industrial Production Index and indices for world GDP, world merchandise trade and world seaborne trade (1975–2012) (1990 = 100) 350 300 World merchandise trade 250 World seaborne trade 200 World GDP 150 OECD Industrial Production Index 100 50 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: UNCTAD secretariat, on the basis of OECD Main Economic Indicators, May 2012; UCTAD, The Trade and Development Report 2012; UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport press release 658, April 2012, World Trade 2011, Prospects for 2012. The 2012 index for seaborne trade is calculated on the basis of the growth rate forecast by Clarkson Research Services in Shipping Review Outlook, spring 2012. CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 3 and Taiwan Province of China, due to the interrupted supply chains. Table 1. 1 provides an overview of annual GDP growth over the 2008-2011 period and a forecast for 2012. While growth in developed economies weakened in 2011, developing countries continued to drive world economic expansion and to account increasingly for a larger share of world GDP. This share is estimated egional growth: on the one hand, the country’s middle class is expanding and the government is adopting policies to encourage growth in private consumption; on the other hand, as China moves up the value chain, lower-value manufacturing companies are relocating to other low-wage countries such as Bangladesh and Viet Nam. 4 the end of the stimulus effect, the sluggish growth in Europe and the hesitant recovery in the United States. Growth in Africa was held back by the unrest in North Africa and remains vulnerable to political instability, volatile commodity prices and potential 2005) in 2010. 3 In 2011, growth in China remained country continues to be, however, the engine of Table 1. 1. World economic growth, 1991–2012a (Annual percentage change) Region/country WORLD Developed economies of which: United States Japan European Union (27) of which: Germany France Italy United Kingdom Developing economies of which: Africa South Africa Asia Association of Southeast Asian Nations China India Republic of Korea Latin America and the Caribbean Brazil Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Transition economies of which: Russian Federation .. 5. 2 4. 0 4. 3 4. 7 3. 2 2. 5 5. 9 4. 9 9. 9 5. 9 5. 0 2. 7 2. 6 5. 2 .. 4. 8 3. 6 5. 9 4. 0 9. 6 7. 5 2. 3 4. 0 5. 2 7. 7 5. 2 5. 0 4. 1 1. 3 9. 2 7. 0 0. 3 0. 9 4. 5 2. 8 8. 4 8. 0 10. 4 9. 0 6. 2 6. 0 7. 5 5. 8 4. 2 2. 5 3. 1 6. 8 4. 5 9. 2 7. 0 3. 6 4. 3 2. 7 4. 0 4. 5 4. 1 2. 7 5. 5 4. 9 7. 9 6. 0 3. 3 3. 4 2. 0 4. 1 4. 3 1. 5 2. 0 1. 6 3. 1 4. 7 5. 3 2. 4 1. 1 3. 7 1. 7 1. 8 2. 1 7. 5 3. 0 1. 7 0. 4 0. 7 5. 9 4. 9 0. 9 0. 3 3. 4 1. 0 2. 3 0. 3 3. 0 4. 4 2. 1 1. 5 1. 7 2. 0 2. 1991–2004 Averagea 2. 9 2. 6 2008 1. 5 0. 0 2009 2010 4. 1 2. 8 2011b 2. 7 1. 4 2012b 2. 3 1. 1 Sources: UNCTAD Trade and Development Report a Average percentage change. b Forecast. 4 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 droughts. Prospects for the region could, however, improve given large new gas discoveries in Tanzania and West Africa. 5 As to the least developed countries weak global economic conditions, an increase of two years could, according to IMF, lower growth by 10 part a weaker global demand and a slowing Chinese cent in 2011, with growth being sustained by higher commodity prices, increased public infrastructure spending and strong agricultural output. World economic developments in 2011 highlighted the continued strong interdependence among economies and to some extent weakened the case for a potential decoupling of growth between developed 2011, economic growth in most developing countries and economies in transition started to decelerate, suggesting that these countries are not immune to the problems facing advanced economies and that they remain vulnerable to contagion through various channels, including trade, supply chains and the 2. World merchandise trade In tandem with the world economy, growth in world merchandise trade by volume (that is, trade in real in 2010. In addition to a weaker world economy, trade in 2011 was particularly hampered by natural shocks disrupting supply chains and production processes in Japan and Thailand, civil unrest in North Africa and oil supply disruption in Libya. Meanwhile, supported by high commodity prices, the value of to reach $18. 2 trillion, a relative slowdown from the 11 Developed eco nomies performed better than expected Looking to the future, global economic growth is isk cannot be excluded that it will be skewed to the downside. A potential escalation of the debt concern, despite ongoing efforts to contain the crisis and avoid contagion, such as, for example, increasing pledges to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its resources to above $1 trillion. 6 To put this into context, the IMF provided Greece shipments. 12 April 2012, respectively. 7 Oil price developments constitute another concern as persistent high and volatile oil prices could become a drag on global demand. In 2011, oil prices increased (pb) despite the release of strategic stocks from the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries. The $32 increase in the average oil price during 2011 importing to oil-exporting countries. 8 It is estimated by IMF that a cut in oil supply from the Islamic Republic of Iran, due to sanctions, could lead to an initial world do not make up for the shortage. 9 Under relatively The slowdown in demand and the overall weak growth in advanced economies translated into weaker imports in developed regions. In 2011, imports grew cent recorded in 2010. Japan recorded the slowest States (3. 7). Imports into developing countries expanded at the commodity prices. Imports into Latin America CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 5 respectively. In a separate development, a recent decline in the normally large trade surpluses of Japan and China is changing the trade landscape and constitutes a welcome development, as it could imply 13 of a multilateral trading system under the WTO Doha Round negotiations. At the November 2011 meeting of the G20, participants underscored their commitment to free trade and to the multilateral trade system. 17 However, since mid-October 2011, 124 new restrictive measures have been recorded, affecting Relevant measures include trade remedy actions, tariff increases, import licenses and customs controls. 19 18 deceleration in trade growth with global merchandise over the period 1990–2008. Apart from current global economic uncertainties, the outlook for merchandise trade is also clouded 14 A report by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and in 2012. 15 B. WORLD SEABORNE TRADE20 1. General trends in seaborne trade Preliminary data indicate that world seaborne trade 16 A surge in protectionist measures is another driver of climate and the lack of progress on the adoption Table 1. 2 Growth in the volume of merchandisea trade, by country groups and geographical region, 2008–2011 (Annual percentage change) Exports Imports 2010 13. 9 13. 2 2011 5. 9 5. 1 Countries/regions WORLD Developed economies of which: 2008 2. 5 2009 2010 14. 1 11. 0 2011 5. 0 3. 5 2009 2008 2. 4 2. 5 2. 3 5. 5 2. 4 3. 2 27. 5 15. 3 12. 0 15. 4 8. 7 10. 3 3. 4 4. 5 4. 5 12. 8 13. 7 11. 2 6. 0 7. 2 6. 0 7. 0 Japan United States European Union (27) Developing economies of which: Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Asia of which: ASEAN China India Republic of Korea Transition economies 10. 6 8. 5 8. 0 8 2. 3 29. 7 0. 7 15. 5 0. 8 6. 6 10. 1 14. 8 10. 0 19. 2 7. 1 23. 3 21. 9 21. 9 30. 8 13. 8 17. 4 15. 5 1. 9 3. 7 3. 2 6. 2 3. 9 7. 1 6. 1 6. 1 10. 6 5. 3 6. 7 17. 0 1. 6 1. 8 10. 6 16. 8 8. 8 2. 6 18. 8 18. 8 29. 0 5. 9 15. 3 11. 5 Sources: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics and Trade and Development Report, 2012. a 6 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oil and gas 1 440 1 871 1 755 2 163 2 422 2 698 2 747 2 742 2 642 2 772 2 796 Main bulksa 448 608 988 1 295 1 709 1 814 1 953 2 065 2 085 2 335 2 477 Other dry cargo 717 1 225 1 265 2 526 2 978 3 188 3 334 3 422 3 131 3 302 3 475 Total (all cargoes) 2 605 3 704 4 008 5 984 7 109 7 700 8 034 8 229 7 858 8 409 8 748 Sources: Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by reporting countries and as published on the relevant government and port industry website, and by specialist sources. The data for 2006 onwards have been revised and upated a Figures for 2011 are estimated based on preliminary data or on the last year for which data were available. Iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite/alumina and phosphate. The data for 2006 onwards are based on various issues of the Dry Bulk Trade Outlook, produced by Clarkson Research Services. on-mainlane trade as the United States and Europe continued to struggle with sluggish growth and uncertainty, while dry bulk volumes held strong with continued import demand for raw materials in large developing economies, notably China and India. Five to the value of world seaborne trade. Wh ile recent data, including for 2011, are not readily available, existing estimates for 2007 may provide some insight into the distribution of world seaborne trade by value and allow for some comparisons to be made. In 2007, it was not tanker cargo (oil and gas) that accounted for the largest share of global trade, but demand in China, a country accounting for about two thirds of global iron ore trade volumes in 2011. Tanker carried in containers. Tanker trade accounted for respectively. 1 More recent analysis of the 2008 and 2009 United Nations trade data shows an increase in the strong import demand for these commodities from emerging developing countries, in particular China. 22 feature global seaborne trade in volume terms (tons), oil trade continued to account for approximately one third of the total in 2011. During the same year, dry cargo, trade and general cargo held the remaining two thirds As developing countries contribute increasingly larger shares and growth to both worl d GDP and merchandise trade, their contribution to world seaborne trade has also been increasing. In 2011, a cent of this trade was delivered on their territories for by other dry goods including general cargo. A different picture emerges, however, when one considers the contribution of these market segments world players both as exporters and importers, a remarkable shift away from earlier patterns when they served mainly as loading areas of high volume goods (mainly of high volume raw materials and resources) CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 7 Table 1. 4. World seaborne trade in 2006–2011, by type of cargo, country group and region Goods loaded Petroleum products and gas Millions of tons 914. 8 933. 5 957. 0 931. 1 983. 8 1 033. 5 336. 4 363. 0 405. 3 383. 8 422. 3 423. 3 41. 3 39. 9 36. 7 44. 4 45. 9 49. 7 537. 1 530. 7 515. 1 502. 9 515. 6 560. 5 86. 0 81. 8 83. 3 83. 0 92. 0 108. 9 93. 9 90. 7 93. 0 74. 0 85. 1 93. 5 357. 0 358. 1 338. 6 345. 8 338. 3 357. 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 Goods unloaded Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo 893. 7 903. 8 934. 9 921. 3 979. 2 1 038. 6 535. 5 524. 0 523. 8 529. 9 522. 6 569. 9 3. 1 3. 5 3. 8 4. 6 4. 6 4. 4 355. 1 376. 3 407. 2 386. 9 452. 0 464. 3 39. 4 44. 5 43. 5 39. 7 40. 5 43. 4 60. 1 64. 0 69. 9 73. 6 74. 7 79. 3 248. 8 260. 8 286. 8 269. 9 333. 1 337. 7 6. 7 7. 0 7. 1 3. 6 3. 7 3. 9 5 053. 4 5 240. 8 5 409. 2 5 036. 6 5 531. 4 5 823. 7 2 347. 2 2 220. 5 2 233. 0 1 719. 2 1 916. 5 1 935. 7 61. 9 66. 0 79. 2 85. 3 114. 0 146. 1 2 644. 3 2 954. 3 3 097. 0 3 232. 1 3 500. 9 3 741. 8 269. 1 289. 8 288. 1 302. 5 333. 7 287. 8 263. 7 275. 9 292. 7 234. 304. 2 338. 1 2 105. 3 2 382. 1 2 509. 5 2 686. 2 2 853. 4 3 105. 3 6. 2 6. 5 6. 7 9. 5 9. 7 10. 6 Country group World Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 7 700. 3 8 034. 1 8 229. 5 7 858. 0 8 408. 9 8 747. 7 2 460. 5 2 608. 9 2 715. 4 2 554. 3 2 865. 4 2 966. 2 410. 3 407. 9 431. 5 505. 3 515. 7 510. 4 4 829. 5 5 020. 8 5 082. 6 4 798. 4 5 027. 8 5 271. 2 721. 9 732. 0 766. 7 708. 0 754. 0 787. 7 1 030. 7 1 067. 1 1 108. 2 1 029. 1 172. 6 1 260. 0 3 073. 1 3 214. 6 3 203. 6 3 054. 3 3 094. 6 3 216. 4 3. 8 7. 1 4. 2 6. 3 6. 5 7. 1 Crude 1 783. 4 1 813. 4 1 785. 2 1 710. 5 1 787. 7 1 762. 4 132. 9 135. 1 129. 0 115. 0 135. 9 123. 3 123. 1 124. 4 138. 2 142. 1 150. 2 138. 7 1 527. 5 1 553. 9 1 518. 0 1 453. 5 1 501. 6 1 500. 3 353. 8 362. 5 379. 2 354. 0 351. 1 344. 5 251. 3 252. 3 234. 6 225. 7 241. 6 254. 0 921. 2 938. 2 902. 7 872. 3 907. 5 900. 1 1. 2 0. 9 1. 5 1. 5 1. 5 1. 6 Dry cargo 5 002. 1 5 287. 1 5 487. 2 5 216. 4 5 637. 5 5 951. 9 1 991. 3 2 110. 8 2 181. 1 2 055. 5 2 307. 3 2 419. 5 245. 9 243. 7 256. 6 318. 8 319. 7 322. 0 2 765. 0 2 932. 6 3 049. 6 2 842. 3 010. 5 3 210. 3 282. 2 287. 6 304. 2 271. 0 310. 9 334. 2 685. 5 724. 2 780. 6 730. 1 846. 0 912. 4 1 794. 8 1 918. 3 1 962. 2 1 836. 3 1 848. 8 1 958. 4 2. 5 2. 5 2. 6 4. 6 4. 8 5. 3 Total 7 878. 3 8 140. 2 8 286. 3 7 832. 0 8 443. 8 8 769. 3 4 164. 7 3 990. 5 4 007. 9 3 374. 4 3 604. 5 3 615. 3 70. 6 76. 8 89. 3 93. 3 122. 1 154. 7 3 642. 9 4 073. 0 4 189. 1 4 364. 2 4 717. 3 4 999. 3 349. 8 380. 0 376. 6 386. 8 416. 9 371. 3 373. 4 415. 9 436. 8 371. 9 448. 7 491. 5 2 906. 8 3 263. 6 3 361. 9 3 592. 4 3 838. 2 4 122. 0 12. 9 13. 5 13. 8 13. 1 13. 4 14. 5 Crude 1 931. 2 1 995. 7 1 942. 3 1 874. 1 1 933. 2 1 907. 0 1 282. 0 1 246. 0 1 251. 1 125. 3 1 165. 4 1 109. 6 5. 6 7. 3 6. 3 3. 5 3. 5 4. 2 643. 6 742. 4 684. 9 745. 3 764. 4 793. 2 41. 3 45. 7 45. 0 44. 6 42. 7 40. 1 49. 6 76. 0 74. 2 64. 4 69. 9 74. 1 552. 7 620. 7 565. 6 636. 3 651. 8 679. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 Developed economies Transition economies Developing economies Africa America Asia Oceania 8 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 Table 1. 4. World seaborne trade in 2006–2011, by type of cargo, country group and region (continued) Goods loaded Petroleum products and gas 12 12 12 12 12 12 37 39 42 41 43 41 5 4 4 5 5 5 59 57 54 54 52 54 9 9 9 9 9 11 10. 3 9. 7 9. 7 7. 9 8. 7 9. 0 39. 0 38. 4 35. 4 37. 1 34. 34. 6 0. 01 0. 01 0. 01 0. 02 0. 02 0. 02 Dry cargo 65 66 67 66 67 68 40 40 40 39 41 41 5 5 5 6 6 5 55 55 56 54 53 54 6 5 6 5 6 6 13. 7 13. 7 14. 2 14. 0 15. 0 15. 3 35. 9 36. 3 35. 8 35. 2 32. 8 32. 9 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 Goods unloaded Petroleum products and gas Dry cargo 11 11 11 12 12 12 60 58 56 58 53 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 42 44 42 46 45 4 5 5 4 4 4 6. 7 7. 1 7. 5 8. 0 7. 6 7. 6 27. 8 28. 9 30. 7 29. 3 34. 0 32. 5 0. 7 0. 8 0. 8 0. 4 0. 4 0. 4 64 64 65 64 66 66 46 42 41 34 35 33 1 1 1 2 2 3 52 56 57 64 63 64 5 6 5 6 6 5 5. 2 5. 3 5. 4 4. 6 5. 5 5. 8 41. 7 45. 5 46. 4 53. 3 51. 6 53. 3 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 Country group World Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 32. 0 32. 5 33. 0 32. 5 34. 1 33. 9 5. 3 5. 1 5. 2 6. 4 6. 1 5. 8 62. 7 62. 5 61. 8 61. 1 59. 8 60. 3 9. 4 9. 1 9. 3 9. 0 9. 0 9. 0 13. 4 13. 3 13. 5 13. 1 13. 9 14. 4 39. 9 40. 0 38. 9 38. 9 36. 8 36. 8 0. 0 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 Crude 23 23 22 22 21 20 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 86 86 85 85 84 85 20 20 21 21 20 20 14. 1 13. 9 13. 1 13. 2 13. 5 14. 4 51. 7 51. 7 50. 6 51. 0 50. 8 51. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 0. 1 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 53 49 48 43 43 41 1 1 1 1 1 2 46 50 51 56 56 57 4 5 5 5 5 4 4. 7 5. 1 5. 3 4. 7 5. 3 5. 6 36. 9 40. 1 40. 6 45. 9 45. 5 47. 0 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 0. 2 Crude 25 25 23 24 23 22 66 62 64 60 60 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 37 35 40 40 42 2 2 2 2 2 2 2. 6 3. 8 3. 8 3. 4 3. 6 3. 9 28. 6 31. 1 29. 1 34. 0 33. 7 35. 6 – – – – – – Percentage share Developed economies Transition economies Developing economies Africa America Asia Oceania Source: Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by reporting countries, and data obtained from the relevant government, port industry and other specialist websites and sources. The data for 2006 onwards have been revised cargo type. Figures for 2011 are estimated based on preliminary data or on the last year for which data were avaialble. CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 9 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Container Other dry cargo Five major bulks Oil and gas 1980 102 1 123 608 1 871 1985 152 819 900 1 459 1990 234 1 031 988 1 755 1995 371 1 125 1 105 2 050 2000 598 1 928 1 295 2 163 2005 969 2 009 1 709 2 422 2006 1 076 2 112 1 814 2 698 2007 1 193 2 141 1 953 2 747 2008 1 249 2 173 2 065 2 742 2009 1 127 2 004 2 085 2 642 2010 1 275 2 027 2 335 2 772 2011 1 385 2 090 2 477 2 796 2012 1 498 2 219 2 547 3 033 Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, various issues. For 2006–2012, the breakdown by type of dry cargo is based on Clarkson Research Services’ Shipping Review Outlook, various issues. Data for 2012 are based on a forecast by Clarkson Research Services in Shipping Review Outlook, spring 2012. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Loaded Unloaded Developed economies 34 41 Developing economies 60 57 Transition economies 6 2 Source: Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by reporting countries, and data obtained from the relevant government, port industry and other specialist websites and sources. Figures are estimated based on preliminary data or on the last year for which data were available. 10 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 (Percentage share in world tonnage) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Loaded Unloaded 1970 63 18 1980 58 26 1990 51 29 2000 53 37 2005 56 41 2006 63 46 2007 62 50 2008 62 51 2009 61 56 2010 60 56 2011 60 57 Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, various issues. 60 50 40 30 20 10 Loaded Unloade d Asia 39 56 Americas 23 16 Europe 18 23 Oceania 11 1 Africa 9 4 Source: Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by reporting countries, and data obtained from the relevant government, port industry and other specialist websites and sources. Figures are estimated based on preliminary data or on the last year for which data were available. CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 11 ountries, their share of imports outweighed exports, Transition economies continued to account for the remaining trade, their contribution to world seaborne cent, respectively. Geographically, Asia maintained its lead position and continued to fuel world seaborne trade with its share of goods loaded amounting to drove coal prices up. 26 Meanwhile, higher demand for thermal coal in Europe and a rise in coal exports from the United States have boosted the Atlantic trade. however, with China in particular emerging as a net importer, and with Indonesian exports predomin antly catering for this demand. In view of the relatively short distances between China and Indonesia, compared with he United States or South Africa, estimated average distances fell from 4,998 miles in 1998 to 3,910 miles in 2011. 27 For 2012, Clarkson Research Services are forecasting world seaborne trade. However, several downside risks continue to stand in the way of a robust and sustainable recovery in shipping, including the current global economic uncertainty, security concerns and tensions, as well as a potential rise in trade restrictions. and kerosene) and crude oil recorded the smallest tonoil trade has been evolving over the past decade. Tanker trade patterns, including associated ton-mile demand, are changing as a result of the strategies seeking to diversify crude oil supply sources. In China, between 2001 and 2011, the share of the country’s ton-mile trade sourced from Western Asia has been decreasing, while the proportion of its ton-miles sourced from the Caribbean has increased. 28 The share of crude ton-miles from Western Asia fell from cent in 2011, while the Caribbean share increased 29 The Western Asia share of crude ton-miles to North America fell from shares of the Caribbean and West Africa helped offset this decline. 30 In 2014, the crude ton-mile demand of China is expected to surpass that of North America. 31 import demand for industrial commodities necessary for steel production has fuelled rapid growth in the iron ore and coal trades. The growing appetite of China for these commodities has heightened the need to diversify sources of supply, and include more distant locations such as Brazil, the United States and South Africa. While the estimated average distance of global iron ore trade increased from 5,451 miles in 1998 to 6,260 miles in 2011, iron ore ton-miles are expected to increase further as new mines in the Arctic and West Africa start up. 24 Steam and coking coal ton-miles varied both over regions. 25 In 2011, coal trade patterns shifted, with in Asia implies a lesser need for long-haul petroleum products imports. However, with the closing of three country’s ton-mile demand for crude oil imports will likely be reduced. This means, in parallel, that its tonto rise with higher import volumes from Europe, India 2. Seaborne trade in ton-miles 23 The unit of ton-miles offers a measure of true demand for shipping services and tonnage as it takes into account distance, which determines ships’ availability. Between 1999 and 2011, ton-miles have increased for all cargoes, distances rose in certain regions. Europe, for example, replaced crude oil from Libya with longer-haul substitutes from Western Asia, the Black Sea, and Western Africa. 32 Furthermore, tankers trading between Western Asia and the Atlantic coast of the United States are increasingly travelling greater distances to avoid piracy off the coast of Somalia in the Indian Ocean. 33 Oil products have also shown slower ton-mile growth 12 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 Bearing in mind these differences, the evolution of dwtwith the trends observed in cargo ton-miles as shown highlights the impact of the 2009 downturn when global trade collapsed, as well as the strong rebound in trade volumes recorded since 2010. Rapid growth in gas trade have been key drivers of growth in dwt-miles over the do not account for unused ship supply capacity (for example, ships that are laid up, waiting or out of service). Therefore, the dwt-mile data presented resilience of dry bulk trade owing to the booming Asian demand for commodities such as iron ore and coal. 14 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 3. Seaborne trade by cargo type Tanker trade34 Crude oil production and consumption35 In 2011, world oil consumption grew marginally by While consumption in the OECD countries declined countries. Interestingly, after growing by an average consumption growth in China slowed down in 2011, is being drawn up as new oil discoveries are made in different regions and as new market suppliers emerge. move by China to secure its energy supply through foreign investments. 36 In March 2009, China lent up the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Brazil,37 in exchange for oil, while its investment in the mining sector in sub-Saharan Africa accounted for about one third of the country’s foreign direct investment (FDI). 38 There are now 50 countries in which Chinese oil companies have more than 200 upstream investments. 39 The extent to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leading the growth. Non-OPEC supply the Russian Federation and Colombia was offset by declines in Norway and the United Kingdom. remains unclear as the strategy being developed by China also aims to ensure that, by 2015, half the country’s crude imports are shipped on domestic ship tonnage. Another trend reshaping the market is the falling demand in the United States – the world’s largest Current sanctions applying to the oil trade of the market and raising uncertainties. The sanctions have a direct impact on this country’s oil exports as well as on the oil trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. An escalation of these geopolitical tensions could lead to a shutdown of the Strait, which in turn would create oil shortages and raise oil prices to potentially extreme levels, including the range of $200–$400. 40 Although temporary waivers have been issued for a number of countries, concerns remain with respect to the likely severe impact of the sanctions, including those enacted by the European Union. These latter sanctions prohibit insurers in Europe – marine insurers are to a large extent based in Europe and the United States – from issuing or maintaining insurance to tankers involved in servicing the oil trade of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pressure is particularly high for some key crude importers, which could be forced to provide sovereign guarantees to tankers. In a separate development, tanker trade has also been affected by rising operating costs resulting from the higher oil and bunker fuel prices that prevailed in 2011. Tanker operators had to reduce speed to optimize fuel consumption and also absorb excess tonnage capacity. Slow steaming has been implemented in the tanker trade, with most voyages taking place at an average of 13 knots (compared to 14 knots), and at 10–11 knots when sailing in ballast (see also Recent developments in drilling activity point to future oil supply increases. Drilling activity picked up in 2011 due in part to the allocation of new drilling permits in the Gulf of Mexico. This follows the end, in October 2010, of the moratorium established in this region after the Deepwater Horizon incident. Activity also revived with launched in 2011. Crude oil shipments Over the past decade, crude oil volumes increased at a relatively slower pace than other market segments. Between 2000 and 2011, crude oil shipments grew the total volume of crude oil loaded globally amounted largest loading area, followed, Africa, developing areas were in ascending order, Japan, North America, Europe and developing Asia. Tanker trade patterns are changing as crude oil source CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 15 In 2011, world shipments of petroleum products and il and natural gas, 2011 (World market share in percentage) World oil production Western Asia Transition economies North America Africa Latin America Europe North America Transition economies Western Asia Europe Latin America Africa 33 16 14 11 12 10 5 25 24 16 15 8 7 6 North America Europe Latin America Western Asia Transition economies Africa North America Europe Asia Transition economies Western Asia Latin America Africa World oil consumption 32 24 16 9 10 5 4 If gas trade were to be excluded, and using estimates for LNG and LPG trade published by Clarkson Research Services (Shipping Review Outlook, spring 2012), the growth rate would moderate and amount time on record. World natural gas production World natural gas consumption 25 16 17 18 14 7 3 Natural gas supply and demand Natural gas is the third largest source of energy consumed globally, after oil and coal. North America continues to account for the largest share of world gas consumption, although the largest growth rate was recorded in the Asian market. Source: UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data published in the British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 Note: Oil includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural where this is recovered separately). The term excludes derivatives. cent, with consumption in North America expanding largest growth was recorded in China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Japan. The combined effect of a weak economic situation, relatively high gas prices, warmer weather conditions and an incremental shift towards greater use of renewable power generation has led gas consumption in the European Union to drop by products and gas bpd. The drop in the OECD output was offset by increased production in developing countries, including India, China and those of Latin America. For cent, with production in the United States growing by world producer. The United States has been gradually reducing its dependency on foreign energy supplies, in part through increased exploitation of its shale gas. Output of natural gas grew rapidly in Qatar, the Russian Federation and Turkmenistan, which helped to offset the lost output from Libya and the United Kingdom. Production in the European Union also declined as demand in the region weakened and gas capacity growth continues to take place in the Asia– nd the United States (the largest market for European to seek alternative markets in Africa and Western Asia for European gasoline, and a supply and demand towards gasoline production and global demand however, could mean greater European imports of oil products in the future. LNG on board gas carriers and the remaining share bei ng carried via pipelines. Shipments of LNG grew 16 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 increasing exports from Qatar and increasing imports by iron ore volumes, which accounted for the largest LNG imports, with Japan remaining the world largest importer, followed by the Republic of Korea. Over the past few years LNG has been one of the fastest-growing cargoes owing to the increasing interest in LNG as a greener alternative to other fossil fuels. Interest in LNG heightened in 2011 as the fallout from the disaster in Japan highlighted the risk of a great reliance on nuclear power over the long term. New and expanding LNG-receiving terminals (for example, in the United Kingdom, the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates, Chile, and Thailand) are being started operations between 2010 and 2011, including those in Qatar, Peru and Norway. Overall, the outlook for LNG is positive and is supported by growing demand from traditionally large LNG exporters such as Indonesia and Malaysia. steel production, growing infrastructure development needs of emerging developing countries, urbanization and the evolution of the global manufacturing base. World consumption and production of steel, a key product supplier to many industries, continued to expand in 2011 despite prevailing global economic uncertainties and volatilities. In 2011, world steel overall weakness of the world economy and the slight slowdown in the economic expansion of China. With most of Chinese steel demand being driven by expenditure on investment and construction, the 2011, a slower pace than in 2010. World steel production is estimated to have grown tons. Steel production in China increased, albeit at a slower pace, and still accounted for almost half of the global output in 2011. Other emerging developing economies such as India, Brazil, the Republic of Korea and Turkey, which have featured among the top 10 steel producers for the past 40 years, also increased Russian Federation will be driving global exports of LNG and that these two countries will lead the fourth wave of LNG exports. 41 at the present time and is led by Qatar, the second third wave is expected to occur around 2020 and be driven by West Africa. 42 Dry cargo trades: major and minor dry bulks and other dry cargo 43 In 2011, the momentum was maintained for dry Coal production, consumption and shipments consumption, coal is the second most important primary energy source and is used mainly in power cent in 2011, with consumption outside the OECD grain, bauxite/alumina and phosphate rock) and minor bulks (agribulks, fertilizers, metals, minerals, steel and cent. Despite growth in Europe, overall consumption falling demand in the United States and Japan. most of the growth occurring in developing countries and with China accounting for over two thirds of this expansion. Since China has emerged as a net importer of coal, coal prices have been rising, as have new investments in exporting countries, including Australia, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, in 2011. Major dry bulks: iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite/ alumina and phosphate rock CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 17 been attracting investors, especially from Brazil and producers, users, exporters and in percentages) 44 In 2011, the volume of coal shipments (thermal and Steel producers China Japan United States Russian Federation India Republic of Korea Germany Ukraine Brazil Turkey Others Iron ore exporters Australia Brazil Others India South Africa Canada Sweden Coal exporters Indonesia Australia United States Colombia South Africa Russian Federation Canada Others China Grain exporters United States European Union Argentina Australia Canada Others 36 12 11 10 9 23 34 30 10 8 7 6 3 2 1 42 31 10 7 5 3 2 Coal importers Japan Europe China India Republic of Korea Taiwan Province of China Malaysia Thailand Israel Others Grain importers Asia Latin America Africa Middle East Europe Confederation of Independent States 33 21 22 14 6 3 18 18 13 13 13 6 2 2 1 12 46 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 18 Iron ore importers China Japan European Union 15 Republic of Korea Middle East Others 63 12 10 6 2 6 Steel users China European Union 27 North America Confederation of Independent States Middle East Latin America Africa Other 45 11 9 4 4 3 2 22 compared with 2010. In 2011, coki ng coal shipments the demand side as well as supply side constraints resulting from tighter market conditions caused by interrupted coal mine operations, which reduced supply and raised coal prices. This in turn depressed demand, especially from China, where domestic supplies provide a better alternative to less competitive coal imports. Growth in overall coal shipments held strong due to an n Asia, a stronger demand for steam coal in Europe, for a short while, high oil prices and the aftermath of the nuclear accident in Japan have all contributed to boost demand for thermal coal. In 2011, Indonesia remained the leading exporter of and India as well as in Europe has boosted thermal coal imports. Import levels in Japan and the United States dropped due, in part, to the aftermath of the March 2011 disaster in Japan, stringent environmental regulation and comparatively low gas prices in the United States. Indonesia as the biggest exporter of coal by 2016. 45 Australia is investing in t he establishment of new mines and expanding existing ones. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, by October 2011 there and 76 proposals. 6 Meanwhile, some observers are noting that the growing power generation needs in Indonesia may constrain the country’s exports starting in 2014. 47 This would likely provide an opportunity for other suppliers, including those situated in locations distant from China, to step in and meet the growing demand. Potential new players that may develop a bigger role include the United States, the Russian Federation, South Africa and Mongolia. Main world Source: UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data from the World Steel Association (2012), Clarkson Research Services, published in the June 2012 issue of Dry bulk Trade Outlook, and the World Grain Council, 2012. 18 REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012 The outlook for coal trade remains promising, as cent. Brazil and China are increasingly investing in to developments in coal production and consumption patterns in China, as the scale of the country’s large domestic supply means that any small shift could turn the country into a net exporter again. 48 Additionally, the country’s Five-Year Plan for the period 2011 to 2015, which aims to reduce the energy and carbon intensity of the economy, is likely to impact on coal trade. bottlenecks that may hinder this trade. 50 wider economy and the steel-making sector, and more importantly, to the effect of new macroeconomic policies being instigated by China, the outlook for iron